Model Performance & Calibration
Window: last 90 days. Metrics below are derived from recorded prediction events and settled outcomes. This is an analysis product, not a guarantee of future outcomes.
Settled Picks
177
Win Rate
74.01%
Brier Score
0.21
Log Loss
0.61
Portfolio KPIs
ROI
24.21%
Avg Edge
3.49%
Positive Edge Rate
100.00%
Pending Picks
6
Data Quality
Settled Ratio
96.72%
Stale Pending Ratio
3.28%
Sample Size
183
Window Adequacy
Adequate
Calibration Bins
0% - 10%
Predicted: 0.00% • Actual: 0.00% • Error: 0.00%
10% - 20%
Predicted: 0.00% • Actual: 0.00% • Error: 0.00%
20% - 30%
Predicted: 0.00% • Actual: 0.00% • Error: 0.00%
30% - 40%
Predicted: 0.00% • Actual: 0.00% • Error: 0.00%
40% - 50%
Predicted: 0.00% • Actual: 0.00% • Error: 0.00%
50% - 60%
Predicted: 55.50% • Actual: 88.64% • Error: 33.14%
60% - 70%
Predicted: 64.63% • Actual: 69.12% • Error: 4.49%
70% - 80%
Predicted: 73.55% • Actual: 73.58% • Error: 0.04%
80% - 90%
Predicted: 0.00% • Actual: 0.00% • Error: 0.00%
90% - 100%
Predicted: 0.00% • Actual: 0.00% • Error: 0.00%
By Model Version
logreg-baseline-v1
Sample: 92 • Settled: 89 • Win: 75.84% • ROI: 25.15% • Brier: 0.20
xgboost-challenger-v2
Sample: 91 • Settled: 88 • Win: 72.16% • ROI: 23.26% • Brier: 0.22
By Risk Profile
high
Sample: 61 • Settled: 59 • Win: 75.42% • ROI: 28.21% • Brier: 0.21
medium
Sample: 61 • Settled: 59 • Win: 73.73% • ROI: 23.25% • Brier: 0.21
low
Sample: 61 • Settled: 59 • Win: 72.88% • ROI: 21.16% • Brier: 0.21
Generated at: 05/04/2026, 18:29:31
These metrics are informational and do not imply guaranteed outcomes or returns.