What Is Expected Value (EV) and Why Does It Matter?

Expected Value is a mathematical measure that tells you whether a bet will be profitable in the long run.

The Formula

EV = (Win Probability x Potential Profit) - (Loss Probability x Stake)

Simple Example

Suppose the home team has a 60% chance of winning a football match, and the bookmaker offers odds of 2.00.

Win probability: 0.60

Potential profit: $100 x 2.00 = $200 (net $100 profit)

Loss probability: 0.40

Loss: $100

EV = (0.60 x 100) - (0.40 x 100) = 60 - 40 = +$20

This is a +EV bet. Over the long run, you would expect to profit $20 on average for every $100 staked.

Why Does It Matter?

You cannot predict the outcome of any single match, but if you consistently follow a +EV strategy over thousands of bets, you will be mathematically profitable. This is the core principle behind professional betting.

How Tahminbaz Helps

Tahminbaz's machine learning models calculate the true probability for every match and compare them against bookmaker odds. When the odds exceed the true probability -- a +EV opportunity -- you get notified.

This lets you make data-driven decisions instead of emotional ones, giving you a mathematical edge.