Over/Under 2.5 Goals Prediction Model

The Over/Under 2.5 goals market allows profit even without knowing the exact match result.

Poisson Distribution

Goals scored follow a Poisson distribution parameterized by the expected goal count (xG). If the model's estimated λ differs from the market's implied λ, a value bet exists.

Input Factors

Recent scoring averages, home/away advantage, opponent defensive strength, and match importance all feed into the model.

Conclusion

Tahminbaz calculates Poisson-based over/under predictions for every match and highlights which markets offer edge.