How AI Match Prediction Works

AI-powered match prediction combines statistical modeling and machine learning.

Data Sources

Tahminbaz collects data from 220,000+ matches including match statistics, historical results, player performance, team fatigue, and Elo ratings.

Model Architecture

Three models work together: Poisson Regression (goal counts), Gradient Boosting (outcome classification), and Neural Networks (pattern recognition). Their outputs are combined via ensemble weighting.

Calibration

Raw model outputs are calibrated so that a prediction of 70% probability should win approximately 70% of the time.

Conclusion

AI prediction is probabilistic, not deterministic. The goal is to produce positive expected value (EV) over the long run.